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Their very personal story unfolds within these pages, step by step and month by month, demonstrating how their discovery changed them forever. With full disclosure for the very first time this book shows every trade, every change, every high and every low of a Forex trading system called simply 'Grail'. The lessons to be learned here are invaluable" Simon - UK Trading Forex foreign exchange carries a high level of risk, Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
Forex trading, forex system, trading strategy, currency trading, foreign exchange, financial trading, forex, forex trading system, forex books, forex currency trading, forex day trading, forex ebook, forex exchange, forex investing, forex strategies, forex techniques, forex trading books, forex trading strategies, currency trading system, day trading, daytrading, daytradingforex, forex strategy, day trading system, d. As a systems designer and trader he has built up a reputation for straight talking honesty and sage advice to thousands of 'wannabe' traders on many of the worlds leading trading forums.
Born in in the UK, James has been married to Lucy for 30 years. He resides in Derbyshire UK. Customer Reviews, including Product Star Ratings, help customers to learn more about the product and decide whether it is the right product for them.
Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. It also analyses reviews to verify trustworthiness. How much would you risk? How would you trade it? How would your emotions handle such a 'guaranteed' trading system? For the first time ever nothing is held back, Fully Disclosed Trade by trade entry levels Trading timeframes Trade exit levels Optimum risk management strategy Trailing stop settings Full results and account screenshots Could you be the next trader to find a Holy Grail system?
What changes you should be wary of when trading your forex strategies What happens to your mind when all of your hard work comes together - the trading psychology What happens when everything looks wrong The true reason for a trading system failing hint: it mostly isn't the system Their very personal story unfolds within these pages, step by step and month by month, demonstrating how their discovery changed them forever.
With full disclosure for the very first time this book shows every trade, every change, every high and every low of a Forex trading system called simply 'Grail' Who Should Buy This Book? System traders Foreign Exchange traders Trading system developers Home based retail traders Those developing Forex autotrading strategies. Tags Forex trading, forex system, trading strategy, currency trading, foreign exchange, financial trading, forex, forex trading system, forex books, forex currency trading, forex day trading, forex ebook, forex exchange, forex investing, forex strategies, forex techniques, forex trading books, forex trading strategies, currency trading system, day trading, daytrading, daytradingforex, forex strategy, day trading system, d.
Previous page. Print length. Publication date. File size. Page Flip. Word Wise. Enhanced typesetting. See all details. Next page. The Graham Norton Book Club podcast. About the Author James Windsor has been a Forex trader since During the first decade of the century he traded for himself and for clients around the globe investing millions in the market every day.
He is a home based trader still trading the markets today from the UK. About the author Follow authors to get new release updates, plus improved recommendations. James Windsor. Brief content visible, double tap to read full content. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. Read more Read less. Customer reviews. How customer reviews and ratings work Customer Reviews, including Product Star Ratings, help customers to learn more about the product and decide whether it is the right product for them.
Learn more how customers reviews work on Amazon. Top reviews Most recent Top reviews. Top reviews from United Kingdom. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later. Verified Purchase. Found it amusing but the content is poor. The whole system and journey with the trading system was literally fools gold.
The book is a blog based on a system developed by a group of novice traders. The only thing to learn from this book is what not to do. The system they created was pitiful, author should be embarrassed by how poor the system design was. A system which was fit to past data of only 4 years sample, the rules being completely arbitrary with no reasoning or logic. No mention of testing in sample or out of sample. No walk forward or monte Carlo analysis, in fact no mention of any system performance evaluation.
Looking at mean reversion first, it is possible but problematic, as stop losses may need to be very wide and profits are by definition limited. I cannot see this as the basis for a holy grail. The overreaction of markets and their tendency to produce excessive returns on a statistical basis is the holy grail, or rather, provides the basis for a holy grail: a methodology that will make effortless profits over time.
The best way this can be explained is to imagine taking a handful of salt grains and throwing them up in the air. Suppose you were then able to measure the distance of each grain of salt from the throwing point. You would find that most of them would be relatively close to you, with a few outliers that had travelled further away. The percentages show how many grains travelled each given distance. Now suppose that you were constantly buying and selling randomly in the Forex market, and you measured and recorded the maximum possible gain of each trade over thousands of trades and thousands of days.
A greater number of excessive price events happen than would normally be produced by simple randomness. In plain language, the market offers more big winners and losers than it really should. Yes, it can be this simple, although it is not without a few potential pitfalls.
These were the most volatile and trending instruments in the Forex markets during most of this period. If a very simple trading strategy of entering upon the next bar break of any engulfing bar on the H4 chart in the direction of the engulf was followed, using a stop loss placed just the other side of the engulfing candle, the following results would have been achieved by instrument and reward to risk profit targets: Notice how a very simple, straightforward strategy that takes no account whatsoever of trend, direction and support and resistance can be made into a positive expectancy of 53 cents gain for every dollar risk, simply by not taking profit until reward has reached 50 times risk!
It would be simple to improve these results by moving stop losses to break even after a certain period of time on every trade. This is because the strongest winners usually will only retest the entry, if at all, relatively quickly. Even the Holy Grail has Pitfalls The holy grail exists, but it has to be handled with caution. You can find the grail by trading the right instruments that move with maximum volatility, i.
You do not have to be right or forecast the major moves: you just have to be there, cut your losers short, and let your winners run. The natural tendency of the market to produce fat tails will do your work for you. There are two major pitfalls that this might lead you to. The first is that you will be better served by a more intelligent exit strategy than simply aiming for a fixed reward to risk multiple.
You need to be booking wins above 10 R:R, ideally towards 25 R:R or even beyond, but each trade will be different. Look to exit around those levels but use some intelligence and discretion. Also, being prepared to move stops to break even when the trade is a certain distance or time in profit should help.
This will inevitably cause very large losing streaks which will severely test both your mental strength and your money management strategy. The grail gives gold, but it is hot to touch and burns the unwary! Do you have what it takes to sit through twenty or more losing trades in a row?
Do you have a money management strategy that will properly protect you from ruin should you begin with a long losing streak? Will you be diversified and uncorrelated enough in order to keep losing streak risk to a minimum? One final danger is worth a mention.
It is natural to try to filter entries. However it is very problematic to distinguish entries that are likely to reach a ratio of Furthermore, missing just one of these winners will set back your overall expectancy, unless the method used will also filter out at least 25 losing trades at the same time. These are some questions to ponder and investigate.
Spend some time back testing. The holy grail has been placed in your hands! If the most volatile instruments are traded in this style, it is possible to be nicely profitable over time without having to really make any analysis or decisions. Despite that, this path has some serious pitfalls that must be avoided intelligently.
Back to the Data We can begin by taking a look at the historical data showing how entries upon next bar breaks of H4 engulfing candles performed on the most volatile instruments from to , a three year period, depending upon the reward to risk multiples that might have been selected as targets for trade exits: This table contains two immediately useful pieces of information.
Firstly, we would have taken a total of 2, trades. Secondly, the positive expectancy per trade rises dramatically until a reward to risk ratio of is reached, after which it rises very slowly before falling off a cliff at above This data is not shown in the above table, but of those 2, trades taken, only were winners. These numbers would put a severe strain on any kind of money management strategy, as the probability of suffering enormous losing streaks would be extremely high.
It is more likely than not there was a streak of between and consecutive losing trades during that three year period. Selective Entries Our problem is that we are currently set to enter a very large number of trades, the vast majority of which will be losers. If we can find a way to enter significantly less trades without suffering a proportionate fall in the expectancy per trade, we can worry less about the strain of likely losing streaks.
The danger here is that when profit rests upon a relatively small number of winning trades, you have to be very careful not to cut yourself out of many of those. Fortunately, using the historical data from to , there seems to be a relatively simple filter which does the job. To win large trades, a trend has to be present. In an uptrend, the price pulls back within the trend making a major low, and then resumes its original direction.
By only taking engulfing candles in such an uptrend that make a low lower than the previous 4 candles, or that directly follow such a candle, we are able to filter out a lot of the losing trades, without sacrificing too many of the winning trades. Here is a table of the performance over the same three year period using this entry filter: It can be seen that overall, the total number of trades is reduced by slightly more than one third, but the winning trades tend to be reduced by a smaller percentage, resulting in rises in the expectancies from to The probable consecutive losing streak is reduced to somewhere between 80 and 90 trades, which is also an improvement.
It is noticeable that this filter had a strongly negative effect upon the Gold trades. Other entry filters that could improve performance would include entering only after engulfing candles with relatively small ranges, as the total positive distance required to be a winner is shorter. Time of day and trend filters can also be applied, although these can be pretty risky.
For example, Gold tends to short well before the London open and long well after the London close. The Yen pairs tend to perform well following the first candle representing the initial few hours of the Tokyo session. Bounces off major support or resistance levels can also be the origins of good trades, although it is surprising how many of the best resumptions within trends begin ahead of these levels.
Selective Exits So far, we have only looked a methodology that exits at a fixed R multiple. This could be refined by setting a target based upon an average volatility or number of pips, so that trades with larger risks can be exited at smaller R multiples. Additionally, there is the question of raising stop losses to break even and beyond.
We have no hard data, but it is likely that moving the stop loss to break even somewhere between two days and one week after entry, or after the trade has moved a certain favourable distance, would enhance the results. Caution is required here as there are often retests of entry zones in long-term position trading using an H4 chart.
Of course, should the instrument being traded in an uptrend fail to make a major higher high a little way short of the desired target, it would make sense to exit at that point and take the profit. Money Management It is vital to use robust and intelligent money management techniques to minimise the risk of catastrophic loss.
As a losing streak of 80 consecutive trades was probably during the three year period, risking a percentage of capital rather than an absolute amount based upon the starting capital is essential. Always bear in mind that the more of your account you lose, the harder it becomes to make it back.
A more appropriate risk per trade would be something like 0. It all depends upon your individual risk tolerance and tolerance of account draw down. One final warning: when you are trading correlated pairs, as in this example where three of the four instruments are Yen crosses, an additional defensive measure can be taken of reducing the total risk when taking multiple trades at the same time in the same direction.
This will be especially important where all the trades are long Yen. In fact, a careful study might show that the best trades are the ones that set up on all three of the Yen pairs simultaneously, or at least that this situation produces an enhanced statistical edge.
Trading in this systematic way requires careful study of historical data, without curve fitting. Before trying this with real money, test rigorously and be honest in answering your own questions, and be sure to study thoroughly and carefully. Today I am going to write a concluding piece to this series, and provide a refined statistical analysis of comparative entry techniques.
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Written by: Thomas Yeomans The FOREXGRAIL Method with the AccuStrength A simple yet powerful Forex Trading Method designed for currency strength charts. The currency strength meter included with the ForexGrail package allows a trader to see 14 What moves the Forex Market In this ebook, I will assume that. The ForexGrail is a Windows application that shows the relative strength of an individual currency. When EUR/USD is rising there is at least one.